By Gongwer Staff
Posted: November 7, 2022 9:45 AM

When it comes to who will be the next House speaker, all eyes remain trained firmly on November.

Beyond just determining whether the Republican supermajority can pad its existing 64-35 advantage in the chamber, Election Day results will also dictate in part how the caucus goes about electing its next leader.

Four Republicans have declared for the job, and despite occasional chatter, members say no other names have formally entered the field of competition to head the chamber for the 135th General Assembly.

The candidates – Rep. Jason Stephens, Rep. Brian Baldridge, Rep. Phil Plummer and Rep. Derek Merrin – have spent the summer maneuvering pieces into place, raising funds and recruiting support from returning and prospective members of the caucus. (See Gongwer Ohio Report, June 30, 2022)

So far, campaign finance reports from this cycle have showed Rep. Stephens as the largest fundraiser. He also retained the largest cash-on-hand balance of the four as of September. (See Gongwer Ohio Report, September 9, 2022)

Except for Rep. Merrin, who declined to share his vision for the chamber, candidates have each stressed a desire to empower rank-and-file members in driving the caucus agenda.

Two-and-a-half weeks out from Election Day, the candidates in interviews each expressed the same sentiment when asked how they feel about their prospects of emerging as the victor: confidence.

"I'm sure if you added up all the votes that all the candidates running for speaker think we have, it's probably about 140," Rep. Stephens (R-Kitts Hill) said, laughing.

"But that's part of the process. So, we'll get through it," he said. "We've got to get this election behind us and then that decision will be made somebody will be speaker on Jan. 3, so we will keep working and see how it works out."

Heading into Nov. 8, Republican strategists believe several new pickup opportunities have opened up, with an overall eight to 10 seats thought to be within reach of flipping. (See Gongwer Ohio Report, October 12, 2022)

Which Republican candidates win and who they support for the top job remains a potential deciding factor in the speaker contest.

"At the end of the day we'll get this taken care of, but it will be after the election," Rep. Baldridge (R-Winchester) said. "That is all our priority right now, making sure that we keep our incumbent members, and I think we're in a great spot to pick up some seats."

Democrats, meanwhile, face a potential 45-seat ceiling in the two-year map and their priority remains protecting or flipping 17 contested Democratic-leaning toss-up districts that favor the party by between 50.05-51.93% based on recent election results.

On that side, members have expressed doubt there is an appetite to challenge House Minority Leader Allison Russo (D-Upper Arlington) to lead the caucus. She was elected to the post in January after Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) stepped down to run for Congress. (See Gongwer Ohio Report, January 12, 2022)

When it comes to Reps. Plummer and Merrin, the two must first secure their own reelections before they can stand for speaker. Each faces a relatively competitive challenge in districts drawn to slightly favor Democrats.

Rep. Plummer (R-Dayton) faces a challenge from Democrat Leronda Jackson in Montgomery County's 39th District, which leans 51.48% in favor of Democrats based on recent election results. (See Gongwer Ohio Report, September 20, 2022)

Rep. Plummer said his campaigns – for his seat and the leadership post – remain "in a very good place."

"I like where we're at," he said. "A lot of it's going to come down to results, but we're doing very well."

When it comes to the speaker's race, he agreed that must take a back seat to the caucus' campaign efforts for now. "Everybody's watching the elections right now," he said.

Rep. Merrin (R-Monclova Twp.), who must overcome a challenge from Democrat Erika White in the 51.2% Democratic-leaning 42nd District, voiced a similar line of thinking.

"My focus is on the November elections," Rep. Merrin said. "We cannot be distracted. We must be united in getting all of our candidates over the finish line in November. That's what I'm focused on: keeping our majority, No. 1, and No. 2, expanding our majority.

Rep. Merrin declined to share specifics of the pitch he is making to members as he courts support – calling that "internal" caucus business. But he described his bid for the top job as "alive and well."

"I've shared my vision of the future with the current members and many of the incoming class," he said. "I'm more optimistic about my chances of becoming speaker than I ever have been before. But right now, I'm going door to door, working on securing victory in my own race and helping candidates all across the state."

The candidates predict a return to the usual process that has traditionally governed speaker selections. Under that scheme, the incoming longest-serving member – or dean – would schedule the closed-door informal leadership vote shortly after the election.

Rep. Bill Dean (R-Xenia), who is competing in a safe 68% Republican seat, inherited that role for the 135th General Assembly, but has yet to schedule a vote.

Traditionally, whoever emerges from that conclave with the majority of support would then enjoy unanimous support from caucus members during the formal floor vote on opening day Jan. 3.

That process, however, would be a far cry from recent cycles, where the speaker's race has become laden with drama with the gavel changing hands at one point three times in as many years.

First Speaker Cliff Rosenberger resigned in 2018 under an FBI inquiry, leading to the short-lived governance of Speaker Ryan Smith. Heading into the 133rd General Assembly, Speaker Larry Householder and his allies blocked Mr. Smith from retaining the job.

A year and a half later and it was Mr. Householder who was ousted from the job after his arrest and indictment for racketeering amid the FirstEnergy scandal. He has denied wrongdoing, but the scandal landed the gavel in the hands of Speaker Bob Cupp (R-Lima), who was reelected to the post in 2021.

"I would predict that this will be more to the traditional speaker's race and how it's done," Rep. Baldridge said. "You know, let's call it like it is. We're going to take care of our family business in our living room and come out as a unified caucus and move ahead into the next General Assembly."

Rep. Merrin agreed, envisioning a process in which members can fully have their say once deliberations officially begin.

"I think it'll be a regular, standard process where everyone has time to make their final pitch and everyone has time to weigh their choices," he said.